Why this quarterback prediction strains my title pick

A caller predicted the national champion would finish the playoff with a different quarterback than it started. I initially read it as a team winning the title with someone other than its opening-day starter, but kept my version because I thought it was the better prediction. I rated both a 10 for boldness.

I still think that rating is right. A team needs a second quarterback who can finish the job, and it has to make the change. My preseason bracket tightens the squeeze: I have Georgia beating Ohio State 31-28 for the title, but Georgia wasn’t among the quarterback rooms I named as candidates.

Texas has Arch Manning with KJ Lacey Jr., Dia Bell and Luke Dunham behind him.

Texas belongs in the discussion because it went 10-3 with a 6-2 conference record last season and opens No. 5 in the AP poll and No. 4 in the Coaches poll. But a deep room doesn’t complete the case. The backup has to take over and beat playoff teams, not just finish a September game.

Ohio State is the cleanest candidate I named. The Buckeyes went 12-2 and 9-0 in Big Ten play last season, enter 2026 ranked No. 1 in both major polls and return Julian Sayin as the starter with Tavien St. Clair behind him. That pairs an established starter-backup order with the team I already have reaching the national championship game.

LSU requires a bigger jump. The Tigers were 7-6 overall and 3-5 in conference last season, compared with Ohio State’s 12 wins and perfect conference record. LSU begins No. 11 in the AP poll and No. 13 in the Coaches poll. I included the Tigers as a possible fit, but they have to move from six losses to the last game of the season before the backup-quarterback portion of the prediction can matter.

Alabama presents a different case. I identified Austin Mack and Keelon Russell as a close competition, so the Tide could begin the year with less separation between the first two quarterbacks than teams with an entrenched starter. Alabama brings an 11-4 record and a 7-1 conference mark from 2025, although it opens No. 13 AP and No. 11 Coaches. The roster fits my argument better than the preseason ranking.

Deuce Knight is part of an Ole Miss quarterback room that also includes Trinidad Chambliss and Walker Howard. That makes the Rebels an actual candidate, though I didn’t put them in my preseason playoff field.

For Texas and Ohio State, this gets its first real sorting on Saturday, Sept. 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET in Austin. The matchup puts two of the strongest roster cases I named on the same field. It can change which team looks capable of carrying this into winter.

My championship score is Georgia 31, Ohio State 28, and only one of those teams made my short list for pulling this off.

— JP