Why I trusted Michigan’s margin against Iowa
Iowa and Michigan entered Sept. 26 unbeaten, but neither offense had consistently created explosive passes. I picked the Wolverines because their roster offered more ways to find the few decisive plays.
The Pate StateMy call for Saturday, Sept. 26, was Michigan in a low-scoring game, with enough separation to cover five and a half. The model had Michigan by five. Two defenses were comfortable playing for field position, two offenses were short on explosive passes and I trusted one roster slightly more.
Iowa and Michigan both entered 3-0, both finished 9-4 in 2025 and were separated by one spot in both preseason polls. Iowa was No. 17, Michigan No. 18. My Michigan pick rested on the Wolverines having better athletes across the full roster and more room for their offense to improve by game four.
Iowa shut out Northern Illinois 40-0 on Sept. 5 and Northern Iowa 55-0 on Sept. 19, with a 16-13 win over Iowa State between them. Michigan beat Western Michigan 13-12, Oklahoma 17-10 and UTEP 52-17. One team had two shutouts against the lighter parts of its schedule. The other had two one-score games before creating separation.
The 52-17 UTEP win gave me a reason to believe Michigan’s offense was moving forward. It didn’t erase the fact that the Wolverines had scored 30 combined points in their first two games.
Iowa’s offensive numbers made the other half of the pick easier. Hank Brown had not reached 200 passing yards in a game. Only one Iowa receiver had more than six catches and 80 yards, and the Hawkeyes ranked 132nd in passes of at least 20 yards. Against Iowa State, they ran 29 times for 93 yards without a carry longer than 10.
Michigan wasn’t attacking from the opposite end of the sport. The Wolverines were 111th in explosive passes, and quarterback Bryce Underwood led the team in rushing. Neither offense had shown it could consistently punish a defense for crowding the line, and both defenses could call the game believing patience would eventually be rewarded.
The matchup came down to whether Michigan could manufacture two or three plays Iowa had not shown it could answer. A third-down conversion in the fourth quarter. Underwood turning a broken play into a first down.
Two shutouts in three games deserve respect, and Phil Parker’s unit has earned more trust over time than Michigan’s offense had earned through September. But Iowa produced zero sacks and zero pressures against Iowa State. With more personnel attrition than usual entering the season, the Hawkeyes still had to prove their early scores reflected their defense against a comparable roster rather than the opponents they overwhelmed.
Iowa went 6-3 in Big Ten play in 2025; Michigan went 7-2. Their identical 9-4 overall records made it difficult to argue that Michigan should control this game merely by showing up in its own stadium.
I didn’t need Michigan to reveal a finished offense on Sept. 26. I needed the Wolverines to find one more fourth-quarter conversion than Iowa and prevent the Hawkeyes’ defense or special teams from supplying points the offense had not shown it could create.
— JP